Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 19.770130 21.505019 23.422156 25.717883 28.419701 31.534224 35.450412
2024-12-15 16.994245 19.232079 21.885007 25.331142 29.800874 35.578118 43.943292
2024-12-22 15.143195 17.631252 20.737632 25.037109 31.084028 39.751379 54.214139
2024-12-29 13.811828 16.433811 19.842265 24.809967 32.300933 44.116576 66.932346
2025-01-05 12.814663 15.515926 19.145415 24.672318 33.539778 48.861083 83.410899
2025-01-12 11.904844 14.602097 18.317292 24.169799 34.040514 52.478102 100.692266
2025-01-19 11.550119 14.398829 18.448391 25.116934 37.157209 62.360421 146.942873
2025-01-26 10.950818 13.789846 17.906370 24.881917 38.066560 68.024651 192.353547
2025-02-02 10.500461 13.353896 17.573213 24.932748 39.525054 75.846185 275.712489
2025-02-09 10.138290 13.015637 17.351614 25.133464 41.335477 85.883896 449.175300
2025-02-16 9.785242 12.663283 17.071010 25.180668 42.824288 96.227212 836.870799
2025-02-23 9.411614 12.254356 16.662476 24.931834 43.569950 104.817036 1838.212593
2025-03-02 9.108780 11.941625 16.396526 24.941846 45.021178 118.202366 28099.508638
2025-03-09 8.787962 11.583022 16.027406 24.705674 45.806951 130.050932 NaN
2025-03-16 8.496353 11.254414 15.685338 24.483645 46.594515 143.563557 NaN
2025-03-23 8.233215 10.957031 15.375819 24.292257 47.437450 159.480539 NaN
2025-03-30 8.001403 10.697814 15.114629 24.171971 48.477468 179.721182 NaN
2025-04-06 7.732497 10.366617 14.706281 23.692002 48.300807 191.013658 NaN
2025-04-13 7.683743 10.388687 14.925359 24.610185 52.946458 266.352437 NaN
2025-04-20 7.479582 10.146259 14.650424 24.384336 53.655974 303.417747 NaN
2025-04-27 7.324739 9.978547 14.501866 24.434052 55.411200 373.695848 NaN
2025-05-04 7.197398 9.850786 14.418765 24.628310 57.827148 495.363533 NaN
2025-05-11 7.058996 9.698498 14.280318 24.674054 59.709402 657.438445 NaN